The Probability of A, given B

A Statistical look at Black versus White Crime
2011 & 2012 FBI Statistics
(revised Dec 2013)


Statistics and Probability theory are very closely intertwined. So when we have unbiased statistics, such as those gathered and published by the FBI, we can, with some knowledge of statistics and probability theory, make sometimes startling assessments with them that are not obvious to the untrained, or layman's, eye.

Impetus for this article

Black-White crime has become a hot topic of late due to the Trayvon Martin (Black) versus George Zimmerman (White) incident. This article is not about the rights and wrongs of that incident.  Rather it is to correctly set forth some statistics being spouted (or ignored) about the prevalence of killing between Black and White individuals in the US.

(For the very few who may not be aware, Trayvon Martin, a Black 17 years old, was shot and killed in a confrontation with George Zimmerman, a media-designated "White" Hispanic . The State of Florida brought 2nd degree murder and manslaughter charges against Zimmerman, but in a very public trial, Zimmerman was acquitted of all charges.)

FBI Statistics

The FBI published statistics (extended tables) for Murder for 2011 and 2012.  The hyperlinks above present the FBI raw data and the numerical derivation of my analysis.  I present on this page only the results of that analysis.  To see how I arrived at those results please click on the above hyperlinks. 

Analysis

Frequency of Occurrence (%)

Description

 2011  2012
Black offender on Black victim (B/B) 91% 91%
White offender on White victim (W/W) 83% 84%
RATIO (B/B)/(W/W) 1.1 1.1
     
Black offender on White victim (B/W) 14.6% 14%
White offender on Black victim (W/B) 7.3% 7.3%
RATIO (B/W)/(W/B) 2.0 1.9

Just looking at the above frequency data for murder, we can make the following conclusions:

1) Murder occurrences from 2011 to 2012 stayed roughly the same;

2) Significantly more (by 10%)  Black on Black offenses than White on White offenses; and

3) Black-on-White offenses were twice the White-on-Black offenses. 

But the above analysis does not take White and Black sub-populations into account.  For that we must calculate the Murder Rate (per 100,000) by Race.

Murder Rate by Race

Description

 2011.   2012.
Black offender on Black victim (B/B) 8.53 8.41
White offender on White victim (W/W) 1.53 1.24
RATIO (B/B)/(W/W) 6.8 6.8
     
Black offender on White victim (B/W) 1.56 1.50
White offender on Black victim (W/B) 0.09 0.09
RATIO (B/W)/(W/B) 17.0 16.4

 

Just looking at the above Murder Rates (per 100,000 sub-population), we can make the following conclusions:

1) Sane-race Murder Rates from 2011 to 2012 improved slightly for both White-on-White and Black-on-Black offenses;

2) The Black-on-Black murder rate is 6.8 times the White-on-White murder rate (by race); 

3) Cross-race Murder rates improved slightly for White-on-Black offenses, but remained the same for Black-on-White offenses;

4) The Black-on-White murder rate is 17 times the White-on-Black murder rate (by race). 

Racial Implications

The Black-on-Black murder rate (per 100,000 Black population) is nearly seven times the White-on-White murder rate (per 100,000 White population).  This indicates Blacks are far more violent than Whites.  Whether this is genetic, culture,  or nurture is often hotly debated.  But for the White community, it is more than ample reason to resist integration, at least until the Black murder rate (by race) is more or less the same as the White murder rate (by race).

The Black-on-White murder rate (per 100,000 Black population) is seventeen  times the White-on-Black murder rate (per 100,000 White population).  This again indicates that Blacks are far more violent than Whites when it comes to interracial murder.  In other words, one can say that in an interracial encounter, a Back is seventeen times more likely to kill a White, than a White is to kill a Black.  Whether this is genetic, culture,  or nurture is again hotly debated.  But for the White community, it is so great a disparity that it becomes an imperative for Whites to resist integration.

Liberals, so-called "progressives, and a majority of Black leaders, all cry "racism" whenever White on Black murder occurs (such as in the Martin vs. Zimmerman incident.)  But they ignore the far more prevalent occurrence  of Black on White murder, and the much, much greater Black on White murder rate (by race)

In fact, not only do liberals, so-called "progressives," and a majority of Black leaders ignore the far more serious Black on White crime, the so-called "main-stream" media also ignores it, reporting only White on Black crime.

Even worse, the Black community appears to encourage Black on White crime.

Statistical characterization

We have to look at the at above statistics as "crimes of opportunity" for interracial incidents.  While segregation of the races is illegal by law, nevertheless Blacks and Whites do not interact freely with each other by choice, but rather clump together by race -- significantly limiting the chances for interaction.  Whites and Blacks by and large, live in different communities.  Even the forced integration of schools does not alter that much.

With the general exception of the higher economic classes, Blacks and Whites do not readily mix, despite all the social engineering by government. The lower the economic strata, the more pronounced the resistance to intermingle.  When Blacks move into a White neighborhood, Whites tend to move out, abandoning the neighborhood.  There is virtually no tendency for Whites to move into Black neighborhoods.  This phenomena exists throughout the nation. 

This reluctance to intermingle reduces the chance that Whites and Blacks come in contact with each other.  In probability theory, that limitation is expressed as the probability of A given (or restrained by) B, where B is the social constraint, or contact opportunity.

We do not have a ready statistic to indicate the degree that Whites and Blacks resist intermingling, except that it remains strong, and the crime rates (by race) presented herein do not support any reduction in that resistance.

Social implication

So what that means to the ordinary law-abiding citizen (White or Black), once the restraint of B is removed (once a one-on-one confrontation with an aggressor of the opposite race exists), a Black aggressor is many more times likely to kill you than is a white aggressor.   Until that statistic improves dramatically, social engineering will not be productive -- that is, inter-racial harmony will not be realized.

In the case of State of Florida versus George Zimmerman, that statistic says that the odds are that Martin (Black) was at least seventeen times more likely to Murder Zimmerman (White), than Zimmerman was to murder Martin. And indeed the evidence presented in court indicated that Martin was the aggressor - and according to Zimmerman, was intent on killing Zimmerman.

The probability of A (Black-on White murder rate at least seventeen times that of White-on-Black) has grave consequences for society as a whole -- more than ample reason for Whites not wanting to integrate with Blacks and see the murder rate of Whites by Black escalate many fold.

 If we as a society are to remedy this, we must address where the problem lies -- and it lies, by and large, not in the White community, but in the Black community -- why is the Black crime (murder) rate so much higher than the White crime (murder) rate, as a percentage of their respective populations, and what can be done about it?

Until this discrepancy in murder rates is resolved, we cannot reasonably expect racial animosity to diminish.
 

2013 Simon Revere Mouer III, all rights reserved