The Probability of A

The Probability of A, given B

A Statistical look at Black versus White Crime
2012 FBI Statistics

FBI Statistics (2012)

SOURCE: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s.-2012/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2012.xls

RAW DATA

Race of victim Total Race of offender Sex of offender

White Black Other Unknown Male Female Unknown

White 3,128 2,614 431 36 47 2,800 281 47

Black 2,648 193 2,412 12 31 2,366 251 31

Other race 183 42 36 103 2 168 13 2

Unknown race 59 26 17 1 15 41 3 15

Total by race 6,018 2,875 2,896 152 95 5,375 548 95

Sex of victim Total Race of offender Sex of offender

White Black Other Unknown Male Female Unknown

Male 4,208 1,804 2,257 85 62 3,725 421 62

Female 1,751 1,045 622 66 18 1,609 124 18

Unknown sex 59 26 17 1 15 41 3 15

Total by sex 6,018 2,875 2,896 152 95 5,375 548 95

The data above is what is presented in the FBI statistics for 2012. I have added total lines for race and sex in blue font.

In this analysis, we are only interested in Race data, which is highlighted in orange, and of that only Black on White (and White on Black) statistics, which is highlighted in magenta (pink).

Analysis

Frequency of Occurrence (percentage)

2012	offender		Ratio (B/W)
victim	White	Black	1.9
White	84%	14%
Black	7%	91%
			1.1

Frequency of Occurrence (percentage)

What the above table says in words is as follows:

84% of White victims offenders were White, and 14% were Black

7% of Black victims offenders were White, and 91% were Black

(Black-on-White) divided by (White on White) equals 1.9
                   14%       /            7%                      =        1.9
Blacks murder Whites at approximately twice the frequency that Whites murder Blacks

(Black-on-Black) divided by (White on White) equals 1.1
                  91%        /            84%                    =        1.1
Frequency of Black-on-Black murder is 10% greater than White-on-White

The Frequency of Occurrence Analysis, above, does not factor in the great difference in population -- specifically, the Black population is only 12.5 % of the total population. Or in other words, there are 8 Whites for every 1 Black

Murder Rate (Occurrence/100,000) by Race

Population estimate	88%	12%
Total	White	Black
238,952,977	210,278,620	28,674,357
	offender		B/W
victim	White	Black	16.4
White	1.24	1.50
Black	0.09	8.41
			6.8

Murder Rate (Occurrence/100,000) by Race

In the table above, population is factored in buy dividing the frequency of occurrence by the sub-population. The total population estimate is given in the FBI data in other tables. The formula for calculation the Murder rates is:

Murder Rate equal frequency-of-occurrence divided by sub-population

What the above table says in words is as follows:

The White-on-White murder rate (per 100,000 of the White population) is 1.24
The Black-on-Black murder rate (per 100,000 of the Black population) is 8.41
The Black-on-Black murder rate is 6.8 times the White-on-White murder rate.

The Black-on-White murder rate (per 100,000 of the respective sub-population) is 1.50
The White-on-Black murder rate (per 100,000 of the respective sub-population) is 0.09
The Black-on-White murder rate is 16.4 times the White-on-Black murder rate.