When we put on upper and lower limit envelopes, we see little that indicates a predictive pattern that can guide us well, but it does appear that the wild swings of the early 1900's has settled down into milder swings.  Nothing in the past guarantees us that inflation won't again experience the wild swings of the past, and take particular note that the peak inflation rates appear to occur every 30 years or so.  If that 30+ year cycle for peak inflation holds true, then we now may be due for few years of high inflation  . 

In fact, it appears that the relatively stable, low inflation rates of the past 20+ years may be in for some tumultuous adjustments as crude oil prices appear to be rising on wild speculation, the housing market has suffered a crisis of epic proportions, and bank failures have suddenly become all to frequent.  While we have insufficient modeling knowledge to be sure, there also appears to be a significant change in the US policies making bodies, which may result in significantly different economic policies -- all which may adversely affect the future rate of inflation. 

©2008, Simon Revere Mouer III
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